While the WTA divides its action between two coasts this week, the ATP spans the Atlantic Ocean with events on two different continents and surfaces. The 500 tournament in Washington, part of the US Open Series, takes center stage.
Top half: A champion in Washington four years ago, Juan Martin Del Potro holds the top seed at the 2013 edition. The Wimbledon semifinalist hopes to rediscover his torrid form against one of two men who shone in Atlanta. Producing semifinal runs there last week, Lleyton Hewitt and Ryan Harrison will square off in one of the most intriguing first-round matches. Nor can Del Potro relax if he survives the winner. A strong grass season, highlighted by a second-week appearance at Wimbledon, will have restored Bernard Tomic’s confidence. Although he continues to cope with controversy surrounding his father, Tomic has plenty of ways to disrupt Del Potro’s rhythm if the Argentine returns rusty from a leg injury. A more straightforward test awaits from Kevin Anderson, seeking his third semifinal in three weeks. Before he meets Del Potro in the quarterfinals, Anderson may find the returning Mardy Fish an opponent worthy of his steel.
If power dominates the top quarter, flair defines much of the second quarter. The flamboyant shot-making of Tommy Haas favors precision over physicality, while the graceful one-handed backhand of Grigor Dimitrov has a vintage appeal. Haas reached the final in Washington last year, perhaps using his training at the Bolletieri Academy in Florida as experience for coping with the humidity. But power never lags far behind in a draw filled with Americans. Sam Querrey will face one of two Atlanta quarterfinalists, Denis Istomin or Santiago Giraldo, in the second round. A contrast of styles would await if Querrey advances to face Dimitrov and then Haas, although a 5-8 record since April leaves a deep run far from guaranteed.
Semifinal: Del Potro vs. Haas
Bottom half: Filled with question marks, the third quarter could produce a surprise semifinalist. The favorite at first glance would seem Milos Raonic, by far the most powerful of the seeds. Raonic’s massive serve could sizzle on a hot hard court, but he has accomplished little since winning yet another San Jose title in February. Neither has fellow seed Nikolay Davydenko, who has struggled historically against possible second-round opponent James Blake. Some of Gilles Simon’s best results have come in North America, including a Miami quarterfinal this spring, and the fifth seed’s steadiness might suffice to ease him past the erratic men around him. Among them is former champion Radek Stepanek, who looks forward to American collegiate star Steve Johnson in his opener.
One might lose sight of defending champion Alexandr Dolgopolov in the fourth quarter. Not a threat for most of 2013, Dolgopolov faces an arduous route towards a title defense. Home hope John Isner looms in the third round if he can revive his energy after a draining title run in Atlanta. An easier route to the quarterfinals beckons for Kei Nishikori, who won a North American 500 tournament at Memphis this year. Bogota runner-up Alejandro Falla faded quickly in Atlanta, as did American teenage sensation Jack Sock. The clean, balanced baseline game of Nishikori should carry him past either of those opponents, after which a first meeting with Isner could await.
Semifinal: Simon vs. Isner
Final: Del Potro vs. Isner
Top half: An assortment of Europeans and clay specialists have headed to this Austrian event before venturing into the steamy American summer. German top seed Philipp Kohlschreiber aims to move one round further than he did at another clay 250 event. The finalist in Stuttgart a few weeks ago, Kohlschreiber can look ahead to a quarterfinal against Spanish dirt devil Marcel Granollers. This Rome quarterfinalist will welcome the opportunity to erase memories of an epic loss in Gstaad last week. Between them stand Horacio Zeballos of Nadal-defeating fame and Wimbledon surprise Kenny de Schepper, who reached the second week there.
A greater Wimbledon surprise than de Schepper came from Fernando Verdasco, who would not hold the third seed here if not for his quarterfinal appearance at the last major. To his credit, Verdasco parlayed that breakthrough into a strong July, highlighted by victories over Nicolas Almagro, Grigor Dimitrov, and Jerzy Janowicz. An all-lefty matchup against Brazilian clay specialist Thomaz Bellucci should not detain him for long en route to a rematch of the Bastad final. At that Swedish tournament, Verdasco fell to Carlos Berlocq, who faces an extremely challenging assignment as the fifth seed. Days after defeating Federer, the ominous Daniel Brands sets his sights on the Bastad champion. Also in this deep section is Robin Haase, arriving from a series of morale-boosting wins in Gstaad.
Semifinal: Granollers vs. Verdasco
Bottom half: A week of mixed omens for Albert Montanes in Umag included an upset over world No. 9 Richard Gasquet and a tight loss to Gasquet’s compatriot Gael Monfils. Twice a semifinalist on clay already this summer, Victor Hanescu finds himself on a collision course with Montanes, who won a clay title in Nice just before Roland Garros. The winner should feel confident heading into the quarterfinals, although home hope Jurgen Melzer will have most of the audience behind him. Melzer reached the second week of Wimbledon but has lost five consecutive clay matches dating back to Monte Carlo.
Arguably the softest section, the base of the Kitzbuhel draw lies at the mercy of second seed Juan Monaco. This recent member of the top 10 has shown altogether too much mercy in 2013, helplessly watching his ranking decline. All the same, Monaco has produced at least somewhat respectable tennis this summer on clay, his best surface. Three qualifiers and a wildcard offer little competition, so any challenge would need to come from one of two Spaniards. While Daniel Gimeno-Traver has struggled on clay this year, Roberto Bautista-Agut retired last week in Gstaad. Monaco thus looks safe unless he implodes, admittedly not unthinkable.
Semifinal: Montanes vs. Monaco
Final: Verdasco vs. Montanes
Roland Garros Roundup takes you through the Slam’s hot stories of the day, both on and off the court.
Shot of the Day: No. 6 seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga defeats Viktor Troicki in the most routine match on the men’s side, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3. The Frenchman next takes on Roger Federer who escaped a five-set battle against another Frenchman, Gilles Simon.
Roger Federer avoids monumental upset: After falling behind two sets to one to Frenchman Gilles Simon, Roger Federer’s 2013 French Open campaign and his quarterfinal streak at majors (35) were in imminent jeopardy of being shot down. After breaking for 4-2 in the fourth set, Federer was able to pick up the momentum Simon had seized in the second and third sets to ultimately win in five sets. Federer reveled in his victory following the match as EuroSport.com reports.
Juniors take the court: The burgeoning stars of the future began their quest for a Roland Garros crown Sunday as the French Open Junior Championships kicked off. If you’re looking for more info on the junior competition, Collette Lewis of Zoo Tennis has you covered with a preview of the Boys and Girls singles draw.
Svetlana Kuznetsova triumphs Angelique Kerber: In case you missed the 11am match, fourth round match between Russian Svetlana Kuznetsova and German Angelique Keber, Peter Bodo of Tennis.com wrote an extremely detailed account of Kuznetsova’s three set victory. Kuznetsova’s reward for defeating Kerber is a date with Serena Williams in the quarterfinals. Bodo advises Kuznetsova to “return to Hogwarts and see what else Dumbledore can cook up before that meeting takes place” after earlier commenting that Kuznetsova’s outfit was “an outfit designed by Albus Dumbledore” as it was “dark blue with a pattern suggesting clouds in the moonlight lacking only a wand as an accessory.”
Serena Williams talks on court emotions: In her post-match press conference, Serena Williams talked about the emotions she exhibited in her straight sets victory over Italian Roberta Vinci. Williams was asked, among other things, about her displays of anger in the early stages of the second set. One member of the media went as far as to say that Serena “looked like she was frustrated and was going to cry.” Serena appeared to be thrown off by the question and responded saying, “I’m fine, I’m totally fine, I’m really intense, I don’t remember that.”
Robin Soderling discusses absence: Having been absent for almost two years after being inflicted with the Epstein-Barr virus which leads into mononucleosis, Robin Soderling is still attempting to stage a comeback as LZ Granderson of ESPN reports. Soderling told ESPN, “There’s not much the doctors can do and I’ve been to quite a few of them. They all tell me that my body has to work through it, to do what I can. Now, if I train too much it takes me two days to recover.” Interestingly and surprisingly enough, Soderling told Granderson that he was “more satisfied with the win against Roger [at the 2010 French Open]” than he was with his victory over Rafael Nadal at the 2009 French Open.
Video analysis becoming critical tool: Christopher Clarey of the New York Times describes how video analysis is becoming an increasingly important tool in tennis using Gilles Simon as a case study.
“Tennis has long been slow to embrace the game-film culture pervasive in other professional sports. But that is changing.”
“Simon will have multiple weapons at his disposal against Federer including his speed, backhand, and ability to absorb pace. He will also have, if he so chooses, the benefit of extensive video analysis of Federer’s tactical patterns and tendencies.”
Tommy Robredo Rallies: For the third consecutive match, Spaniard Tommy Robredo erased a two sets to love deficit to win in five sets, a feat that hasn’t been accomplished since 1927. Greg Garber of ESPN calls Robredo “one of tennis’ most tenacious survivors.” Following the match, Robredo was overcome with emotion stating, “And today, again, my emotions were so strong they were overpowering. There was a lot of tension before the match, and then at the end of the match I wanted to find a way out from my emotions.”
Rafael Nadal acknowledges early round struggles: Rafael Nadal’s form in this year’s French Open has certainly been of lower quality than in years past. The Spaniard has acknowledged this fact in anticipation of his fourth round match with Kei Nishikori of Japan.
“I have to play better. If I want to have any chance, I really need to play better. But it is always the same story. When you without playing your best, you have the chances to play better. If you don’t fight when you have tough or negative days, then you don’t have all the chances for the future.”
Sara Errani overcomes injury, Carla Suarez Navarro: After battling through what she called “a stabbing pain under her ribs” that prevented her from breathing at 5-5 in the first set, Sara Errani rallied from a set down to beat Carla Suarez Navarro of Spain in three sets. Errani was extremely satisfied with the outcome and commended Suarez Navarro stating, “For me to be in quarterfinals is unbelievable. She’s an amazing player and it’s always tough to play against her. I’m very happy to have won.”
The schedule of play in singles has shrunk to two courts as the second week starts at Roland Garros. Categories have started to shrink as well in the latter stages of these recaps.
Match of the day: That pesky Gilles Simon just won’t do the decent thing and retreat respectfully from Roger Federer, bowing every two steps. Simon has defeated Federer twice and now taken him to a fifth set in both of their major meetings. Reeling off 10 of 13 games in one stretch, the Frenchman even led the former champion by two sets to one until Federer compiled a seven-game surge of his own and eased through the final set without drama.
Comeback of the day: Maybe we should rename this category the “Tommy Robredo Comeback of the Day.” The Spanish veteran became the first man in the Open era to win three consecutive matches at a major after losing the first two sets. At least Robredo did not need to save match points this time, as he did against Gael Monfils, but he trailed Nicolas Almagro by a break in both the fourth and fifth sets. Of course, this was Nicolas Almagro.
Gold star: Assigned the tallest man in the draw, David Ferrer trimmed him down to size with a clinical efficiency worthy of Procrustes. Serena Williams also would have appreciated Ferrer’s demolition of Kevin Anderson and his massive serve, which ended with consecutive breadsticks. Alone among the men in his half, he has not dropped a set or played a tiebreak through four matches.
Silver star: Like Ferrer, Tsonga has not lost a set en route to a second straight quarterfinal here. His victory over Viktor Troicki produced a routine scoreline like those before it, a departure from his usual trends but good news for his future here.
Stat of the day: By rallying against Simon, Federer extended his streak of consecutive quarterfinals at majors to 36. That’s nine years, reaching back to Wimbledon 2004.
Question of the day: Tsonga threw quite a scare into world No. 1 Novak Djokovic at the quarterfinal stage here last year, holding four match points in the fourth set. He took Federer to a fifth set in the same round at the Australian Open this year. Does another heart-stopping epic lie in store?
Match of the day: A 48-winner barrage from Svetlana Kuznetsova avenged a loss in Madrid to world No. 8 Angelique Kerber. Kuznetsova has reached the quarterfinals at both majors this year, something that at least half of the WTA top ten cannot say pending tomorrow’s results. Unseeded former champions plowing deep into the draw always adds an extra layer of interest to the second week of a major.
Comeback of the day: Her first three matches had tumbled into the win column almost too easily. Like Federer, Sara Errani encountered her first serious test of the tournament today against Carla Suarez Navarro and nearly flunked it. She regrouped to secure her tenth win at Roland Garros in the last two years, having won one match in four previous appearances. Predictably, neither woman hit an ace.
Gold star: Never at her best on clay, Agnieszka Radwanska seemed ripe for an early upset when she lost early at the key clay non-majors and withdrew from Brussels last week with a shoulder injury. Radwanska thus has surprised by reaching the quarterfinals without losing a set, comfortably knocking off 2008 champion Ana Ivanovic to set up an intriguing clash with Errani. All of the top four women are still in the draw.
Silver star: To Roberta Vinci’s credit, she gave Serena Williams something to ponder in the second set as she stayed level until 3-3 and made inroads toward a break in the seventh game. Unwilling to throw her opponent a lifeline, Serena snuffed out the threat, broke, and then served out her 28th straight win. Four matches, ten games lost.
Stat of the day: In five years and 20 majors since she won her in 2008, Ana Ivanovic has reached one major quarterfinal.
Question of the day: Four years ago, Serena and Kuznetsova combined on a quarterfinal thriller that the Russian snatched late in the third set. Could we see a worthy sequel in the same round on Tuesday, or is Serena simply too bulletproof at present?
Now that the second week has arrived, you can find previews of every match on this site. This article covers all eight on Sunday.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Viktor Troicki: While their head-to-head stands more evenly balanced than you might think, Tsonga has won both of their clay meetings convincingly. Troicki has sandwiched a tortuous five-set win over a clay specialist between two straight-sets victories, the latter an upset of Marin Cilic. For a man with a losing record this season headed into the tournament, an appearance in the second week marks an excellent step forward. The bad news for Troicki is that Tsonga has not lost a set through three matches, showing uncommon discipline and purpose. With the French crowd behind him on the biggest tennis stadium in his nation, he should make short work of a man who often gets rattled in hostile or tense environments.
Gilles Simon vs. Roger Federer: When they first started to collide in the second half of 2008, Simon seemed to have Federer’s number. He rallied from losing the first set to grind past him twice that year on the hard courts of the Rogers Cup and the year-end championships. Surely chagrined that his stylistic flights of fancy could not trump a mechanical counterpuncher, Federer labored to finish him off at the 2011 Australian Open after squandering a two-set lead. Rome this month marked the first time that he finally seemed to solve his “Simon problem.” Displaying his superior clay skills, Federer yielded just three games to a Frenchman who lost his first two sets at his home major and needed to come from behind in the third round as well. Simon lost 23 games in his last match. Federer has lost 23 games in the tournament. Not even the crowd, which adores Federer, will give him a meaningful edge.
Kevin Anderson vs. David Ferrer: The tallest man in the draw faces the shortest man in the draw. On clay, though, David Ferrer looms much larger than does Kevin Anderson despite the South African’s appearance in the Casablanca final this spring. Ferrer has dominated all of his first three opponents without dropping a set, pouncing on a weak draw after Madrid and Rome assigned him quarterfinals against Nadal. The Spanish veteran has made a living out of defanging huge servers like Anderson, using his deft reflexes and compact swings to blunt their single overwhelming weapon before outmaneuvering them along the baseline. Anderson bounced Ferrer from the second round of Indian Wells in March, but that victory may have owed something to Ferrer’s busy South American clay schedule just before and the deflating loss to Nadal that ended it.
Tommy Robredo vs. Nicolas Almagro: This all-Spanish battle should feature plenty of traditional clay tennis with extended rallies from behind the baseline. A former member of the top ten, Robredo launched an impressive comeback from injury this spring by winning the Casablanca title and upsetting Tomas Berdych in Barcelona. He has emerged from one of the draw’s most star-studded nuggets, which included not only Berdych but Gael Monfils and Ernests Gulbis. Saving match points against Monfils in the last round, Robredo has rallied from losing the first two sets in each of his last two matches. By contrast, Almagro has grown famous for choking away huge leads. But he has won all five of his meetings with Robredo, all on clay, while losing one total set. Look for him to control the rallies as Robredo slips into retrieving mode.
Svetlana Kuznetsova vs. Angelique Kerber: Two of their three previous meetings have gone deep into a final set and ended with almost identical scores, the most recent in Madrid this spring. Kerber’s burst from anonymity into the top 10 occurred near the same time that Kuznetsova plummeted from trendy dark horse to forgotten woman. True to those trends, the German lefty has won both of their matches this year. Kuznetsova should hold a clear surface edge, however, and she showed by reaching the Australian Open quarterfinals that she still can bring her best tennis to the biggest tournaments. An upset of Agnieszka Radwanska at Roland Garros last year suggests that Kerber has plenty to fear, although she will bring momentum from gritting through a hard-fought contest with dirt devil Varvara Lepchenko. This match may hinge on whose forehand does the dictating.
Serena Williams vs. Roberta Vinci: Headlines would ripple through the tennis world if somebody merely stands up to Serena, much less defeats her. A canny veteran with plenty of clay skills, Vinci will resist more tenaciously than most of her previous victims. Serena will deny her the time to construct her artful combinations, though, and handled her doubles partner Sara Errani with ease. This match could develop some intrigue if the world No. 1 struggles with her timing on her return, which can happen on clay. But otherwise Serena should break serve too consistently and land too many punishing punches with her own serve to feel any serious pressure.
Carla Suarez Navarro vs. Sara Errani: The answer to Robredo vs. Almagro in the men’s draw features a contest between two clay specialists of the sort rarely witnessed in the WTA these days. Errani routed Suarez Navarro in the Acapulco final, which makes sense. In no area of her game is the tiny Spaniard better than the small Italian, who even aced her in Acapulco. On the other hand, Suarez Navarro scored a stunning upset over Errani in the first round of the last major, signaling an appropriate start to the best year of her career. The two women combined for just a handful of service holds in that match, a pattern that could resurface. Having conceded only nine games through three matches, barely more than Serena, Errani has looked as dominant as a woman without weapons other than drop shots ever will.
Agnieszka Radwanska vs. Ana Ivanovic: To state the obvious, the most important shots of a point are the first and the last. (If you’re Serena Williams, it’s often the same thing.) In the language of the WTA, that means penetrating first serves, aggressive returns, and the ability to finish points with clean winners. Ivanovic has struggled in both of those categories during her current six-match losing streak to Radwanska over the last three years. Earlier in her career, she controlled her matches with the Pole by excelling in both of them, but the tide turned in 2009 when the Serb let a 4-0 lead slip away in a third set. The pace of her serve and forehand has dwindled since she won Roland Garros five years ago, although Ivanovic has grown more comfortable in the forecourt with time. Beyond tactics and technique, though, her main challenge lies in believing that she can defeat a top-five woman at a major. The last time that Ivanovic did? Two days before she lifted the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen.
Profiting from more cooperative weather, Roland Garros produced a Day 4 replete with action. Here’s the review of how it all went down.
Match of the day: Ah, the French in Paris. Sometimes they dazzle, sometimes they implode, sometimes they puzzle, and sometimes they do all three. Julien Benneteau achieved the trifecta in a five-set victory over Tobias Kamke, completing his first pair of consecutive victories since February. En route to the third round, Benneteau a) won a 20-point tiebreak b) blew a two-set lead c) ate a bagel in the fourth set and d) won anyway. Richard Gasquet, it’s your move.
Worth the wait: After a 14-game fifth set, the epic between Horacio Zeballos and Vasek Pospisil finally ended a day and two sets after Zeballos could have ended it in a third-set tiebreak. A young Canadian talent, Pospisil showed grit by rallying from the brink of a straight-sets loss to the brink of a five-set victory. But Zeballos, who defeated Rafael Nadal to win a South American clay title this spring, relied on his greater experience to get the last word.
Comeback of the day: Dutch heavy hitter Igor Sijsling looked ready to knock off the lowest men’s seed when he swept two tight sets. Continuing a surprisingly solid clay campaign, Tommy Robredo surged through the next three sets for the loss of five total games. The pattern of the scores recalled Roger Federer’s comeback over Juan Martin Del Potro here last year.
Surprise of the day: Surely elated by his upset over Berdych in a first-round epic, Gael Monfils might have fallen victim to a hangover against the dangerous Ernests Gulbis. Although he dropped the first set for the second straight match, Monfils outlasted his fellow erratic shot-maker for another quality win that jangled the nerves of his compatriots a bit less. Up next is a more compelling test of his consistency against Robredo. Check out the more detailed recap of Gael’s win on this site by colleague Yeshayahu Ginsburg.
Gold star: A few of the less notable home hopes fell today, but all of the leading French men prevailed. Like Monfils, Benoit Paire completed a comeback from losing the first set to win in four. Gilles Simon hurled three consecutive breadsticks at clay specialist Pablo Cuevas after he too spotted his opponent a one-set lead. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga roared through in straight sets for the second consecutive match, as did Jeremy Chardy. And don’t forget the wacky win by Benneteau explored above. Plenty of reason remains for French patriots to return as the third round unfolds.
Silver star: Struggling to win matches this year, Janko Tipsarevic and Viktor Troicki both survived potentially tricky encounters. Tipsarevic cruised past local hero Nicolas Mahut, perhaps helped by the schedule shift away from Court Philippe Chatrier after the rain. Troicki weathered five taxing sets and two tiebreaks against clay specialist Daniel Gimeno-Traver, who had upset 17th seed Juan Monaco.
Marathon man: For the second straight round, Andreas Seppi prevailed in five sets. Halfway to defending his fourth-round points from last year, Seppi seemed to have a stranglehold when he bageled Blaz Kavcic in the first set. He later would allow a two-set lead to escape before regrouping when the match hung in the balance.
Stat of the day: All 15 men’s seeds in action today advanced, eight in straight sets.
American in Paris: After winning just one match in his first six Roland Garros appearances, top-ranked man Sam Querrey has won two in his seventh trip here without losing a set.
Question of the day: Second seed Roger Federer entered this tournament as a distant third favorite for the title after Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. Looking at least as sharp as either of them, Federer now has lost just 12 games in two matches, albeit against weak competition from two qualifiers. Should we start taking his title hopes more seriously?
Match of the day: After Victoria Azarenka outlasted her in a long match at the Australian Open, Jamie Hampton secured a happier ending to another three-setter at a major. Hampton stunned 25th seed Lucie Safarova after winning the first set in a tiebreak, withstanding Safarova’s second-set surge, and closing out a 9-7 final set. That 16-game affair was the longest set of the women’s tournament so far.
Worth the wait: Delayed by rain, world No. 3 Azarenka did not start her Roland Garros campaign until Wednesday. Needing to issue a strong statement, as all of her rivals had, Azarenka delivered with a resounding victory over former doubles partner Elena Vesnina. None of the top four women has lost more than five games in a match so far.
Comeback of the day: For the second straight tournament, Svetlana Kuznetsova ate a first-set breadstick from an unseeded opponent. Whereas the Rome breadstick from Simona Halep preceded another breadstick, the Roland Garros breadstick from Magdalena Rybarikova spurred the 2009 champion into action. Kuznetsova dropped just four games over the next two sets, responding much more forcefully to adversity.
Surprise of the day: Surviving a first-round flirtation with disaster boded well for Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova’s chances here. She almost always has ventured deep into draws this year when passing her first test. This time, though, Pavlyuchenkova fell short in the second round to Petra Cetkovska in another tight three-setter. The victim of painful losses here as well, coach Martina Hingis can empathize.
Unsurprising surprise of the day: Unseeded 2012 quarterfinalist Kaia Kanepi continued her momentum from winning a Premier title in Brussels last week. Kanepi dispatched 23rd seed Klara Zakopalova in straight sets on a difficult day for Czechs.
Gold star: Famous forever after what happened last year, Virginie Razzano technically surpassed that performance this year. Razzano more than justified her wildcard by reaching the third round, perhaps bolstered by the memories of her landmark victory over Serena Williams.
Silver star: In the first match of her career at Roland Garros, promising Australian teenager Ashleigh Barty made her presence felt. Barty stunned last week’s Strasbourg runner-up Lucie Hradecka in three sets, overcoming dramatic disparities in power, experience, and clay expertise.
Marathon woman: Eight of Petra Kvitova’s last nine matches have reached a third set, the latest against the fossilized Aravane Rezai today. That recent capsule from clay reflects a trend typical for Kvitova overall, for she has played 18 three-setters this year and a staggering 39 in 2012-13. Whether caused by slow starts or mid-match hiccups, those rollercoasters illustrate her unreliability.
Stat of the day: Bojana Jovanovski has won three matches since January, two of which have come against Caroline Wozniacki. The Dane predictably became the first top-ten woman to lose at Roland Garros as Jovanovski accomplished what the more talented Laura Robson could not.
Americans in Paris: Blasting past Caroline Garcia today, Serena Williams has lost just four games in two matches and 18 games in seven matches since Rome started. While the top seed continues to look every inch the title favorite, several other American women acquitted themselves well. Varvara Lepchenko notched a second straight routine victory, while women’s wildcard Shelby Rogers swiped a set from 20th seed Carla Suarez Navarro despite the gap between their relative credentials. On the other hand, Madison Keys dropped a winnable match to Monica Puig, and Mallory Burdette could not find any answers to Agnieszka Radwanska.
Question of the day: All of the top four women have roared through their early matches, confirming their elite status. Outside that group, who has impressed you the most so far?
Roland Garros Roundup takes you through the Slam’s hot stories of the day, both on and off court.
- For full match recaps from day one, Chris Skelton details the comebacks, winners, surprises and commentary.
- Gilles Simon sweeps mom off her feet: World No. 18 Gilles Simon rallied from two sets down to take out Lleyton Hewitt in an expectedly drawn out and physically taxing three hour match on a cold and dreary Paris afternoon, to take it 3-6, 1-6, 6-4, 6-1, 7-5. After squandering a 5-0 lead and two match points in the fifth set, Simon sealed the deal breaking the Aussie in the final game of the match to take it. The relief and happiness expressed by Simon after his win paled in comparison to the reaction of his mother, who Simon kindly offered flowers to following the match. Really, it was the least he could do following the insane amount of stress he must have put her through, especially in the fifth set. Prior to the grueling win, Simon sat down with Eurosport for an exclusive interview, divulging that Roland Garros feels “like a party for everyone.” Wonder if he still feels that way.
- Pablo Carreño-Busta handily welcomed by Roger Federer: While Roger Federer’s first round match was a straightforward win over the Spanish upstart Pablo Carreño-Busta, the 21-year-old has an impressive game with some recent notable results. Though the Spaniard was very much overwhelmed and outclassed in his grand slam debut, he has recorded 39 straight victories at the futures level with seven titles. And as Tom Perrota of the Wall Street Journal reports, Carreño-Busta is not ready to let this result against Federer hinder his progression and will get back to work in just over a week in Italy.
“It was my first match in a Grand Slam, first match in Roland Garros, first match in center court, and my first match against Roger Federer,” he said. “So it was very nice, but very difficult.”
- “Pica” Powers over Petrova: 19 year-old Puerto Rican Monica Puig scored a major upset in her first ever grand slam victory, coming back from a set down to take out 11th seed, Nadia Petrova. Puig, who has been nicknamed “Pica” by her followers, has a diminutive stature but she certainly compensates for her lack of size with an abundance of power and potency from the ground. After being down a break at 4-3 in the third set, Puig took matters into her own hands and hit her way through to the finish line, winning the final three games of the match. For those less familiar with Puig, Lindsay Gibbs of The Changeover put together a fabulous piece giving tennis fans a glimpse of the exciting and charming Puerto Rican.
- Blaz Kavcic once again spices up Twiter: Slovene Blaz Kavcic comfortably took out Aussie James Duckworth 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 in what was easily considered a far less thrilling rematch of their epic five-hour encounter at this year’s Australian Open. You may recall Kavcic joking about receiving infused morphine after that match, but he did get an IV drip of muscle relaxants and fluids. Today, the 26-year-old provided us with even more humorous post-match photography. (Warning: photo is somewhat NSFW.)
- Serena Williams marches through: Serena Williams was intent on not having a repeat experience from last year’s French Open where she lost to relative unknown Virginie Razzano in the first round. This time around, she thrashed Anna Tatishvili 6-0, 6-1 in just over 50 minutes in the same round. Despite looking at ease and being in stride throughout the duration of the match, Williams admitted afterward that nerves have sometimes gotten the best of her:
“I’m always a little nervous going into first round matches at Slams. This time I wasn’t as nervous as I was at other Grand Slams, though. But for the most part I felt pretty safe and felt good about my game and that if I just do what I did in practice, I’ll be okay.”
- Loopholes exposed in John Tomic’s favor: Bernard Tomic takes to the court for his opening round match against Romanian Victor Hanescu Tuesday and shockingly enough, his father, John Tomic will be in attendance. As Will Swanton of The Australian describes, John Tomic will be able to evade the bans imposed by the ATP and the ITF for physically assaulting Tomic’s hitting partner, Thomas Drouet by “entering the grounds as a paying customer.”
- Nadal takes to practice courts: Rafael Nadal is already in full preparation for a run at what would be his eighth French Open crown. He can be seen practicing with Spanish compatriot and 32nd seed, Tommy Robredo.
- Piotr Wozniacki decides to stop coaching daughter: In news that many fans will be quite pleased with, Caroline Wozniacki’s father and coach, Piotr, has publically announced his intentions of ending his role as his daughter’s coach. In an article translated from Danish, Piotr laid out his dissatisfaction with his current position saying “I am an adult and I do not want to travel around all the time. I want my own life.” He added that, “This is, of course, not my job. It takes too much energy from me and I become less and less my own person. I do not have friends and contacts, and I do not live the life I want.”
- French Open renovations: According to the AP, Roland Garros officials are outlining a $440 million renovation plan for the tournament which will include a retractable roof over center court, a new 4,850-seat show court, redesigned outer courts, and a dedicated night session among other things. Tournament director Gilbert Ysern elaborates:
“We don’t want to finish very late in the night. We are not going to do like our American friends with the night sessions (at the U.S. Open) starting late and sometimes never ending. But we do indeed want to have a dedicated night session.”
- In case you’re still itching for a forecast for the rest of the fortnight at Roland Garros, the entire Tennis Grandstand team has you covered with elaborate previews and predictions of both the men’s draw and women’s draw.
Check back on Tuesday for more “Roland Garros Roundup”!
Today marks the first in the series of brief daily recaps that will keep you updated on several of the key storylines at Roland Garros. Roland Garros Rewind will be followed by Roland Garros Fast Forward each day, a preview of the next day’s notable matches.
Match of the day: Defending fourth-round points in Paris, Andreas Seppi brought little momentum here after staggering through a miserable clay season. His opening match against unheralded Argentine Leonardo Mayer showed plenty of the reasons for his 2013 woes, but the Italian finished strong to win in five after several momentum shifts.
Comeback of the day: Gilles Simon never had rallied to win a match after losing the first two sets, so things looked grim after he won just four games in two sets against Lleyton Hewitt. On the other hand, he had not lost in the first round of a major since this tournament five years ago. That statistic endured as the other disappeared when Simon eked out a 7-5 fifth set after blowing a 5-0 lead.
Surprise of the day: None. All of the men’s seeds won their matches, most much more comfortably than Simon. Marcel Granollers did end the day in a spot of bother against compatriot Feliciano Lopez, suspended for darkness before starting the fifth set.
Gold star: Pablo Carreno-Busta had sparked plenty of chatter among tennis fans for his success earlier this clay season and long winning streak at ITF events. Roger Federer showed him no mercy in conceding just seven games on Court Philippe Chatrier, the first Grand Slam match of the qualifier’s career. The combination of opponent and setting proved too much for the youngster to overcome.
Silver star: David Ferrer took care of business efficiently too, meeting little resistance from Marinko Matosevic. Ferrer has a very promising draw this tournament as he seeks his fourth semifinal in the last five majors.
American in Paris: Aided by a severely slumping Lukas Lacko, Sam Querrey won just the second match of his Roland Garros career and did so handily. In other words, the USA avoided the ignominy of its top-ranked man losing in the first round of a major.
Question of the day: Three tall men won today: Milos Raonic, Kevin Anderson, and Querrey. Who will go the furthest this year?
Match of the day: In over three hours filled with tension, Urszula Radwanska upset Venus Williams for arguably the most impressive victory of her career. Urszula easily could have faded when Venus slipped away with the second set in a tiebreak, but her youth may have helped her outlast a fading veteran troubled by back injuries this spring. An all-Radwanska match could end the first week.
Surprise of the day: The Puerto Rican phenom Monica Puig knocked off 11th seed and former Roland Garros semifinalist Nadia Petrova. Granted, Petrova has not accomplished much this year, building her ranking upon two hard-court titles last fall. Puig still deserves a tip of the hat for rallying from a one-set deficit despite her lack of experience.
Comeback of the day: The first step often has proved the last for Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova this year, as it had in Madrid and Rome. Déjà vu lurked just around the corner when Andrea Hlavackova served for the match against her in the second set and came within two points of the upset in the ensuing tiebreak. Pavlyuchenkova not only held firm at that tense moment but managed to hold serve throughout a tight third set, a good omen for her future here.
Gold star: What a difference a year makes. Gone in the first round last year to Virginie Razzano, Serena Williams sent home Anna Tatishvili with a gift basket of a bagel and a breadstick. The world No. 1 looked every bit as intimidating as she had in her dominant Rome run.
Silver star: The last woman to lose at Roland Garros last year was the first woman to win at Roland Garros this year. Now the fifth seed rather than an unknown dirt devil, Sara Errani responded well to the target on her back by conceding just three games to Arantxa Rus.
American in Paris: In her first main-draw match at Roland Garros, Mallory Burdette started her career here 1-0 with an impressively convincing victory over teenage talent Donna Vekic. Nerves surfaced when Burdette squandered triple match point as she served for the match, but she saved two break points before closing it out.
Question of the day: Ana Ivanovic started proceedings on Chatrier with a bizarre three-setter that she could have won much more easily than she did. Should we chalk up her uneven performance to first-round nerves on the big stage, or is it a sign of (bad) things to come?
See you shortly with Day 2 previews.
Today features the first edition of a daily Roland Garros preview series that offers a few notes on the next day’s most interesting matches. After each day ends, moreover, a recap of similar length will guide you through the key headlines.
Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Roger Federer: This qualifier reeled off a long winning streak at lower-level events over the last year and reached the Portugal semifinals, also as a qualifier, with victories over Julien Benneteau and Fabio Fognini. Carreno-Busta also upset defending champion Pablo Andujar in Casablanca, shortly before the latter stormed to the Madrid semifinals, and won a set from Stanislas Wawrinka in Portugal. Paris is not Portugal or Casablanca, though, nor is it even Bordeaux, where Carreno-Busta lost in the first round of a challenger.
Gilles Simon vs. Lleyton Hewitt: This tournament might mark Hewitt’s final appearance at Roland Garros. If it does, a match on a show court against a fellow grinder, likely with a strong crowd, seems a fitting way to go. Simon has flown under the radar for most of the year, stringing together some victories at small events and upsetting two top-ten opponents. He reached the second week at the Australian Open despite largely unimpressive form, so he should muddle through here too.
Andreas Seppi vs. Leonardo Mayer: The Italian must defend fourth-round points at Roland Garros, where he won two sets from Novak Djokovic last year. Seppi’s 14-14 record this year does not bode well, and he has survived his first match at only one of six clay tournaments. Fortunately for him, Mayer lost his only clay match this year.
Marcel Granollers vs. Feliciano Lopez: A quarterfinalist in Rome, Granollers owes Andy Murray twice over in recent weeks. First, the world No. 2 retired from their match there, allowing the Spaniard to gobble extra ranking points. Then, Murray’s withdrawal nudged Granollers into a seeded position at Roland Garros. He should take advantage of it against the fading serve-volley specialist Feliciano Lopez, although matches between two Spaniards often get trickier than expected.
Serena Williams vs. Anna Tatishvili: Everyone remembers what happened to Serena in the first round here last year. Nobody remembers it more clearly than Serena does. Expect her to put this match away early, exorcising Razzano’s ghosts.
Urszula Radwanska vs. Venus Williams: Both of these women must cope with being the second-best women’s tennis player in their respective families. Hampered by a back injury, Venus has played just one match on red clay this year, losing routinely to Laura Robson. Urszula is not quite Robson at this stage, but she recorded clay wins over Dominika Cibulkova and Ana Ivanovic this year. Venus should pull through in the end after some edgy moments.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs. Andrea Hlavackova: When Pavlyuchenkova gets through her first match, she has reached the semifinals at four of five tournaments this year, winning two. The problem is that she has lost her first match no fewer than seven times against opponents of varying quality. (Azarenka and Ivanovic are understandable, Lesya Tsurenko and Johanna Larsson less so.) Since reaching the second week of the US Open, Hlavackova has won one main-draw singles match, over the hapless Melanie Oudin. Surely Pavlyuchenkova won’t double that total?
Kiki Bertens vs. Sorana Cirstea: Their big weapons and questionable movement would seem better designed for fast-court tennis. But both of them have found their greatest success on clay, Cirstea reaching the Roland Garros quarterfinals four years ago and Bertens winning her only WTA title so far at Fes last year. This match looks among the most evenly contested of the day with plenty of heavy groundstrokes to go around.
Mallory Burdette vs. Donna Vekic: One of the top American collegiate prospects, Burdette left Stanford last fall to turn pro and has reaped some solid results. Her victims so far include Lucie Hradecka, Ksenia Pervak, and Sabine Lisicki as well as fellow American rising star Madison Keys. Burdette will train her vicious backhand on Croatian rising star Donna Vekic, who reached her first WTA final last year as a qualifier. Vekic has not accomplished much above the challenger level since then, losing her only clay match this year to Chanelle Scheepers in Madrid.
Ayumi Morita vs. Yulia Putintseva: Is Paris ready for Putintseva? The volatile French crowd pounced on fellow pocket rocket Michelle Larcher de Brito, but the distant venue of Court 7 should take some of the scrutiny off the strong-lunged youngster. Putintseva took Serena to a first-set tiebreak in Madrid but will have her work cut out with Morita’s double-fisted strokes. Unlike Coco Vandeweghe, the Japanese star will win points with more than her serve.
(May 25, 2013) With tennis’ second Slam of the season about to get underway with main draw action, the dedicated panel of Tennis Grandstand writers have come together for a comprehensive preview of the men’s draw at Roland Garros. We’ve covered dark horses, seeded players crashing out early, first round upsets and matches to watch for, and potential semifinalists and eventual champion for the men’s tour.
In the table, you will find the entire Tennis Grandstand team’s “Quick Picks and Predictions” for the ATP draw, with further detailed analysis below by Lisa-Marie Burrows, James Crabtree, Romi Cvitkovic, Yeshayahu Ginsburg and Andrea Lubinsky.
Lisa-Marie Burrows: (6) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Tsonga has the potential to sneak through to the quarterfinals relatively untroubled. He may have Marin Cilic, Juan Mónaco and compatriot Jeremy Chardy in his section, but I feel that he can reach the quarters fairly easily. He could be a difficult quarterfinal opponent for Roger Federer to contend with.
James Crabtree: (12) Tommy Haas. The fairytale story has been waiting long enough, and Tommy Haas has the correct subplots to fulfill the fairytale. Not only that but his draw is favorable and rumor suggests he possesses magic beans, has a black cat, practices voodoo and is in fact Baron Samedi (James Bond reference for y’all).
Cvitkovic: Ernests Gulbis. The Latvian has a tough but very doable road to the semifinals. He could potentially take on Tomas Berdych in the second round, Tommy Robredo in the third and Nicolas Almagro in the fourth, before possibly outhitting David Ferrer in the quarterfinals if he has enough steam. He may be a ticking time bomb on court, but Roland Garros has always been his best Slam result, having reached the quarterfinals in 2008. Now, more mature and experienced, he could make another solid run here.
Yeshayahu Ginsburg: (5) Tomas Berdych. Picking a dark horse in tennis is kind of an act of futility nowadays. When it comes to winning Grand Slams, it’s the “Big 4” and no one else. Take Andy Murray out of the equation due to injury (though he was weaker on clay anyway) and it’s Federer, Nadal, Djokovic or bust for the winner. But if I have to pick someone else, Berdych has been very strong recently, reaching the semifinals in both Madrid and Rome. He has a good chance at making a deep run—assuming he can get by Gael Monfils in the first round, that is.
Andrea Lubinsky: (24) Benoit Paire. The good news? Paire is at a career high 26 in the rankings and scored wins over Juan Monaco, Julien Benneteau, and Juan Maritn del Potro en route to the semifinals in Rome, where he pushed Roger Federer in two close sets. The bad news? He’s in Nadal’s quarter. There are plenty of guys who have had a solid clay season, but what makes Paire a better Dark Horse is his inconsistency. His bad days are bad, but his great days are great…
Seeded Player Crashing Out Early
Burrows: (8) Janko Tipsarevic or (19) John Isner. For me it was a toss up between No.8 seed Tipsarevic losing to Verdasco in the second round and John Isner losing in the first. I feel that an early exit may be on the cards for No.19 seed Isner as he faces Carlos Berlocq of Argentina in the opening round. He can prove to be a very tricky customer and enjoys playing on the clay.
Crabtree: It has to be (5) Tomas Berdych. If he doesn’t lose to Gael Monfils in the first round, a true son to his French faithful who is seemingly finding old form, he will have to battle Ernests Gulbis in the second round, another player destined for the top twenty.
Cvitkovic: (5) Tomas Berdych. If he can get past a newly in-form Gael Monfils in the first round, the Czech will likely encounter Ernests Gulbis, who took him out first round of Wimbledon last year and can easily out-play him again on the Latvian’s better surface.
Ginsburg: (8) Janko Tipsarevic. Tipsarevic is not facing any particularly good players on clay until at least the third round (Verdasco can be a challenge but has been horribly inconsistent for a few years now), but Tipsarevic has been playing just awful tennis this year. He probably gets by Nicolas Mahut, but I can’t see him winning more than two matches here unless he turns around fast.
Lubinsky: (8) Janko Tipsarevic. Tipsarevic actually has a pretty cushy section of the draw, but for some reason I’m just not feeling it. That reason? He’s had an abysmal clay season, losing to the likes of Guido Pella, Daniel Brands, Guillermo Garcia Lopez, all ranked at least 50 places beneath him. If he beats Nicolas Mahut in the first round, the No. 8 seed could face Fernando Verdasco, who could pose a real challenge.
First Round Match to Watch For
Burrows: (15) Gilles Simon vs Lleyton Hewitt. The first thing that popped into my head when I saw their names drawn in the first round is ‘this is going to be a long match!’ Expect five long sets, each lasting around one hour each! Both players are great defensive counter-punchers and it will be a battle of fitness on court to see who can edge out the other.
Crabtree: (1) Novak Djokovic vs David Goffin. It’s doubtful Novak will lose, but he should still be pushed by the rising Goffin who took a set off Federer last year. The other match is one that will get little press. Nevertheless watch out for qualifier James Duckworth and Blaz Kavcic. Their last encounter was a four hour and fifty two minute marathon in scolding heat at this years Aussie Open which Kavcic won 10-8 in the fifth.
Cvitkovic: (24) Benoit Paire vs Marcos Baghdatis. Both have eccentric personalities, so I would watch this match as much for the tennis as the hilarity or drama that could ensue. With Paire becoming a surprise semifinalist in Rome two weeks ago and Baghdatis the usual fan favorite, both are sure to bring crowds and opinionated people as well.
Ginsburg: (5) Tomas Berdych vs Gael Monfils. Can there be any better first-round match? Monfils was a top ten player before injuries stalled his career for a bit. He’s on the way back and isn’t fully at top form yet, but he always plays well in front of his home Paris crowd—at least in the early rounds. Both guys play hard-hitting power games and this should be some fun clay court tennis.
Lubinsky: (5) Tomas Berdych v. Gael Monfils. Gael Monfils is a wildcard. Yes, you read that correctly. After an extended injury break, the once world No. 7 has fallen to 109 in the rankings, but he’s working his way back up, winning a challenger in Bordeaux last week and reaching the finals in Nice. Will he win? Probably not. Berdych is in fine form, but generally any Monfils match provides plenty of entertainment. This is one not to be missed.
First Round Upset Special
Burrows: Gael Monfils d. (6) Tomas Berdych. This match has entertainment written all over it. This is a tough first round draw against the enigmatic Monfils, who would love to delight his home crowd with a victory over the fifth seed. Should Monfils be feeling physically fit, this match has the potential to bring a closely fought contest, with the crowd firmly behind their man.
Crabtree: Lleyton Hewitt d. (15) Gilles Simon. Too much Aussie loyalty here. Hewitt will take down Gilles Simon in 5 brutally boring sets! Hewitt never has done much on clay, but he is a grand slam type player who hasn’t got too many of these chances left.
Cvitkovic: Dmitry Tursunov d. (22) Alexandr Dolgopolov. Dolgopolov has been struggling this year, barely winning over 50% of his matches and was defeated by both Robin Haase and Ivan Dodig on clay within the last month. What’s more, Tursunov took Dologopolov to two tiebreak sets in the second round of Munich where he eventually lost. It may be time to plot his revenge and garner more noise surrounding his comeback.
Ginsburg: Ricardas Berankis d. (30) Julien Benneteau. There are some good choices here, especially given Wawrinka’s injury. But I’ll take someone a little lower in the rankings. Ricardas Berankis is in a good position against Julien Benneteau, who is better on hard courts than clay. Berankis is a young player in his first French Open main draw and he has a real chance to make a splash by starting with an upset.
Lubinsky: Pablo Andujar d. (29) Mikhail Youzhny. The No. 29 seed isn’t exactly a clay court specialist and while his clay court relsults this season haven’t been awful, they haven’t been great either. On the other hand, Andujar excels on the the red dirt. He reached the semi finals in Nice this week and even more impressively, the semi finals in Madrid earlier this month. Should he pull the upset, he has real potential to make the 4th round.
Burrows: I have a feeling it will involve the two players that many expect to meet: Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal. Neither player has got a particularly easy route to the final, but it will make for a mouthwatering encounter. It could be the dream final – but a round earlier.
The bottom half of the draw may see David Ferrer take on Roger Federer for a place in the final. If Ferrer can battle past a possible quarter-final meeting with Berdych or Almagro, I think it would provide an interesting semifinal between him and Federer.
Crabtree: I am probably very alone on this but I see Jo-Wilfried Tsonga reunited with Roger Federer for another epic slam semi. Now I promise I am not on medication but Jo will take the winner of the Rafael Nadal and Tommy Haas match.
Cvitkovic: Outside of the top three who I expect to make the semifinals, Nadal, Djokovic and Federer, the fourth spot in Ferrer’s quarter is up for grabs. You could give the semifinal slot to Berdych, Almagro or Ferrer, but I’m going with Gulbis. He must be physical fit and be able to sustain all of his previous matches, then take it to Ferrer’s grinding game by hitting his signature wild winners.
Ginsburg: It would be foolish to pick Djokovic, Federer, or Nadal to lose early, but Djokovic has an absolutely brutal draw. If Tommy Haas ever had a chance for one last hurrah at a Major, this is it. I think he comes out of that quarter whether or not someone beats Djokovic before Haas would meet him. The other sections have some intrigue, with Federer/Tsonga and Berdych/Ferrer two very good potential quarterfinal matches, but I don’t know that there’s as much potential for an upset that massive in the other sections. Give me Haas, Nadal, Ferrer, and Federer as the four semifinalists.
Lubinsky: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Tomas Berdych, Roger Federer. One of these things is not like the others. When one of the Top 4 misses a Grand Slam, it creates a huge void in the draw, a void for someone to take advantage of. Theoretically this section belongs to David Ferrer, but it’s tough to determine his form since he’s been impeded by Nadal in both Madrid and Rome. Berdych on the other hand made the semi finals at both tournaments, putting him in a prime location to take advantage of Andy Murray’s withdrawal. However, he does have a very tough draw including the likes of Monfils, Gulbis, Robredo and Almagro so he will have to find his best form yet.
And the Champion is …
Burrows: (3) Rafael Nadal. Despite a potential tough meeting against Djokovic in the semis, I feel that if Nadal can surpass the world No.1 he will have beaten his biggest nemesis out there. Roland Garros is his stomping ground and I have a feeling Nadal is not willing to give up his crown in Paris just yet.
Crabtree: (3) Rafael Nadal. Nadal will defeat Tsonga in 4 sets, bite his trophy and tell everyone that it was ‘more than a dream!’
Cvitkovic: (3) Rafael Nadal. Ever since coming back from his injury layoff in January, the Spaniard seems to be a man on a mission. Racking up six titles already this year, and holding a record 31-2 on clay in 2013, one would be hard-pressed to pick an alternative. He could face Novak Djokovic in the semifinals, but given the Serbs tough road and any lingering ankle issue, Nadal should be able to get past him to the final with the hunger we’ve learned to love in the Spaniard.
Ginsburg: (3) Rafael Nadal. It would be foolish to pick anyone other than Nadal to win it all, especially with Djokovic’s draw. The only person I see with a decent chance to beat Nadal before the semis is Kei Nishikori, and he just isn’t good enough on clay (though a potential third-round match with Lukas Rosol will generate a lot of hype, that’s for sure). The only player I can see beating Nadal on clay this year in a Slam is David Ferrer (he sure came close twice this year already on clay) and Ferrer just can’t get that far because it means going through Federer. And we all know how Federer/Nadal French Open finals end.
Lubinsky: (3) Rafael Nadal. Nadal is 52-1 at Roland Garros. Let that sink in. In 8 years, he has lost just once. Yes, he was out for an extended period of time, but the rust is all gone. He’s already won 6 titles since his return earlier this year and he’s already leading the race to London, despite having missed this year’s only Grand Slam.
No sooner does the dust settle in Madrid than the action kicks off at the last clay Masters 1000 tournament on the Road to Roland Garros. In fact, the action in Rome’s Foro Italico starts on the day of the Madrid final, offering some extra entertainment for those unsatisfied with the prospect of just one ATP match in their Sunday.
First quarter: A bit of an enigma this clay season, Novak Djokovic has accomplished the most when the least was expected (Monte Carlo) and accomplished the least when the most was expected (Madrid). The world No. 1 has won two titles in Rome, one against potential third-round opponent Stanislas Wawrinka in 2008. Most fans will remember the five-set thriller that they contested at the Australian Open, and Wawrinka will bring considerable momentum to Rome after reaching the final in Madrid with upsets over two top-eight men. A third such victory does not lie beyond his reach, for he also has defeated Murray and Ferrer on clay this year. But Wawrinka has not defeated Djokovic since 2006, dropping 11 straight meetings, and he may have accumulated fatigue from not just Madrid but his Portugal title the week before.
The lower part of the quarter features Tomas Berdych and three towers of power. While Kevin Anderson collected a runner-up trophy in Casablanca, he has suffered a string of setbacks to Berdych in 2012-13 and has shown little sign of reversing that trend. Fellow giants Marin Cilic and John Isner exited early in Madrid, as they usually do on a surface that exposes their indifferent footwork and mobility. Berdych has thrived against opponents of a style similar to his, so his chances of meeting Djokovic or Wawrinka in the quarterfinals look strong. Never has he defeated either man on clay, however, and Djokovic has dominated him relentlessly, including two victories this year.
Second quarter: Much to the relief of his fans, Rafael Nadal will control his own destiny regarding a top-four seed at Roland Garros. The defending champion landed in the same quarter as compatriot David Ferrer for the second straight week, which means that he will pass him in the rankings if he wins the title. One feels a bit sorry for home hope Andreas Seppi, a quarterfinalist in Rome last year who seems likely to lose all or most of those points. Even if survives an opener against fellow Italian Fabio Fognini, which he could not in Monte Carlo, Seppi will become Nadal’s first victim in the next round. Finally gone from the top 10, a dormant Janko Tipsarevic meets an equally dormant compatriot in Viktor Troicki to start the tournament. Nadal demolished Tipsarevic in their previous clay meetings, while Troicki has threatened him only on the fast hard court of Tokyo. Neither Serb might even reach the Spaniard, though, if Monte Carlo quarterfinalist Jarkko Nieminen hopes to continue his unexpected clay success.
Blow after blow has fallen upon Ferrer on his favorite surface over the last few months, from two routs in clay finals to an opening-round loss in Barcelona to the painful collapse against Nadal last week. That Madrid match surely will linger in his mind if they meet in the same round here, although Fernando Verdasco might prevent it. This fading Spaniard looked suddenly improved in Madrid and has a handful of clay victories over Ferrer, but he has lost their last few meetings. A semifinalist in Barcelona, Milos Raonic should struggle to find the consistency necessary to outlast Ferrer here.
Third quarter: This section contains more intrigue than the others because the two bold-faced names who anchor it have struggled this clay season. Lucky to scrape through Madrid as long as he did, the third-seeded Andy Murray finds himself fortunate to find no clay specialists in his immediate area. The man who knocked Federer out of Madrid, Kei Nishikori, will look to follow up that breakthrough by defeating Murray for the first time. After he came within five points of upsetting Nadal in 2011, Paolo Lorenzi earned a wildcard into the main draw to become Nishikori’s opening test. Veterans like Nikolay Davydenko and Feliciano Lopez have sunk too deeply into decline to mount sustained runs.
Absent from Madrid and tepid in Monte Carlo, Juan Martin Del Potro hopes to recapture the form that saw him notch two top-five upsets (and nearly a third) at Indian Wells. He has earned successes on clay before, including twice taking Federer to five sets at Roland Garros and reaching a semifinal there in 2009. Del Potro must beware of Nicolas Almagro in the third round despite the latter’s struggles at Masters 1000 tournaments this year. Remarkably, the two men have not met at the ATP level, so it would be fascinating to see what their explosive shot-making can produce in unison. Either possesses stronger clay-court expertise than Murray, as does Almagro’s potential second-round opponent Juan Monaco. Regrouping from an early-season slump, Monaco has won a set from Djokovic and defeated Tipsarevic over the last month. He also stopped the Scot in Rome before and won his only clay meeting with Del Potro, albeit seven years ago.
Semifinalist: Del Potro
Fourth quarter: The Foro Italico has witnessed some of Roger Federer’s most ignominious setbacks at events of this level, including losses to Filippo Volandri, Radek Stepanek, and Ernests Gulbis. Slowest of the nine Masters 1000 tournaments, the surface left him more vulnerable than the others to the lapses in consistency that have increased as he has aged. Former nemesis Stepanek could meet him again in the second round, although Federer defeated him comfortably in the same round of Madrid. Also lurking in this section, with a wildcard, is Volandri. That particular ghost of Romes past probably will not have the chance to haunt Federer, for Tommy Haas should continue his current string of solid results to reach him in the third round. While Haas won their most recent meeting on the grass of Halle, he has lost all of their other matches since 2007, one of them after winning the first two sets at Roland Garros. Another man who has troubled Federer late in his career, Gilles Simon, might test the German’s consistency in the second round.
Perhaps the most compelling figure of those vying to meet Federer in the quarterfinals is neither of the two seeds but Grigor Dimitrov. Until now, though, Dimitrov has shown a tendency to alternate breakthroughs with breakdowns, so his upset of Djokovic in Madrid could precede a pedestrian effort in Rome. Both of Richard Gasquet’s clay victories over Federer have come at clay Masters 1000 tournaments, heightening the significance of what otherwise would seem an easy test for the Swiss to conquer. A shootout could unfold in the second round between Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and powerful young server Jerzy Janowicz, but neither man should last long on a surface antithetical to their strengths.
Final: Nadal vs. Del Potro
Champion: Rafael Nadal