Roger Federer could either fall off from the chase of Rafael Nadal or keep it real interesting. If Nadal wins the Open then he is going to have an incredible year to hold onto the No. 1 spot in 2009. Novak Djokovic could make a real run at No. 2 if he wins the Open as well as pushing Federer into the third-seeded spot for the Australian Open. Could you imagine, when did Federer last have to look for his name other than the top spot – 235 weeks, that’s how long.

HOT

Andy Murray: After winning his maiden Masters Series title this month Murray has to be one of the favorites although a poor showing at the Olympics and a question about his commitment to fitness over two weeks at a Slam puts his chances at risk. Prediction: Quarters

Novak Djokovic: Although he is having a quite summer in terms of titles, Djokovic always seems to step it up nicely in slams. If he can get past Nadal or Federer in the semis then look for him to lift his second slam. Prediction: Finals

Juan Martin Del Potro: Yes, a long shot but the teenager has gone on a 16-0 run on the hard courts and picked up three ATP titles. He will be tested physically over two weeks and run into stiffer competition soon. Prediction: Quarters

Rafael Nadal: Nadal has never been past the quarters at Flushing Meadows but he is having a career year and playing lights out. He is starting to complain about the schedule again as he has done in previous years and he has played at least 15 more matches than the other top 5 players. Prediction: Semis

Roger Federer: Not playing at his highest level in four years but you cannot count out the 12 time grand slam champion. He has the experience and game to win him the title, He has made two finals and a semifinal in the slams this year, slump? Prediction: Champion.

NOT

James Blake: Not having a great summer on the hard courts and this is where he usually shines. He has just beaten Federer for the first time in eight tries at the Olympics but I do not see the J-Block carrying James past the round of 16 this year.

Andy Roddick: Injury has really slowed the career of Roddick this year from the French Open to last week where he came back and made finals (lost to Del Potro) in LA. I see Roddick going out in the round of 32.

David Ferrer: Ferrer made the semis last year but has been very quite on the hard courts this year. He had a career year last year and I do not see him making it past the fourth round this year with no weapons except for his wheels.

A few players and names to watch over the next few years are Jonathan Eysseric who I am sure you remember gave Andy Murray the scare of his life at this year’s French Open by taking him to five sets. Eysseric is a former world No. 1 junior who is currently ranked No. 378 and just won a futures event (France F11). He is 18 years old. He has been a favorite of Federer to practice with as he is a lefty but I would not be surprised if Fed is also keeping an eye on him.

Kei Nisihikori blew onto the scene by beating James Blake and winning his first ATP title at the Millenium Tennis Championships – Delray Beach this year as a qualifier. Kei has risen as high as No. 99 on the rankings but I see him within the top 60 by years end. Kei has incredible ground strokes but will need to work on his serve and conditioning to really make a run at the top 20. Kei is 19 years old and a name to watch.

Ricardis Barankis is another former world No. 1 junior who is having a great year on the pro tour, he has improved his ranking by nearly 300 spots from April 7^th to July 14 from 750 to a current 471. Ricardis is very talented and beats most players with smarts. He will have to overcome his smaller frame but bigger is not always better on the pro tour nowadays. Ricardis is 18 years old.

Last but not least is a player from France named Alexandre Sidorenko who is originally from Russia. Alex is a former world No. 3 junior and an Australian Open junior champion who has been making nice progress on the men’s circuit. Alex has improved his ranking by 140 spots since April to a career high of No. 211. Alex has a big game and I hope to see him within the top 100 by the middle of 2009.

These are just a few names to look for but watch closely as they are coming fast, I bet Nadal and Federer know who these guys are, James Blake and Andy Murray certainly do.

Cheers.

Every sports writer under the sun is writing about how Federer has fallen from grace and Nadal is the new world No. 1. Nadal pulled out of the Stuttgart tournament the week after Wimbledon, thus losing him 250 points as he had previously won the title in 2007, in other words winning Wimbledon only put him 50 ranking points closer to the No. 1 ranking.

You do not get to No. 1 in the world and dominate a sport like tennis without being one of the most competitive human beings on the planet. I believe that Federer and his team are looking at every possible way that he can get better; from a new coach to different training regimes to different string patterns and equipment. Does this sound crazy, yes but at this level of professional sport any edge could mean the difference between winning and losing.

I believe Federer will hire a full time coach before the U.S. Open. Candidates that would be able to fill this position are, Brad Gilbert, who is a real strategy guru and when combined with Federer’s talent and array of skills, could take Federer miles ahead of the competition again. Pete Sampras could be another candidate, yes he has not coached but let’s be serious – the guy knows what he is doing on the big stage! Could you imagine Federers next opponent looking over the net and seeing Federer and then looking over to his box and seeing his coach, Pete Sampras? That’s pretty intimidating!

Federer has been the catalyst for taking men’s professional tennis to another level over the past four years and he was years ahead of the competition. He has dragged his competition to new heights. They are now starting to catch him but he still has the fight and talent to take his game to another new level.

Watch out world! Federer Part 2 is coming soon.

Bjorn Borg does not get enough credit for what he did in winning all of his titles at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, back when Borg, McEnroe, Connors, Edberg, Lendl played, the clay was slow and the grass was lightening fast with fast balls. The clay required incredible fitness, great patience and solid ground strokes. The grass required a great understanding of fast court tactics, excellent returns and an attacking mentality.

This has become a blur as most players are making the transition onto the grass very easily nowadays not because they are adaptable or better than past generations but because it is so much easier, point in case David Nalbandian and Lleyton Hewitt making the Wimbledon final?

Federer has dominated Wimbledon for the last five years because he has the most complete game on tour, possibly ever. Nadal made the final last year and pushed Federer to five sets but Nadal will struggle on the grass as he relies on his movement and defense too much to make a serious recurring threat at SW 19. Federer will win Wimbledon another 2-3 times before ending his career as he is the most comfortable player in the world moving from defense to offense in a blink of an eye and grass allows him to do this as the grass still gives him an edge as the bounce is lower and the ball skids towards the player robbing them of time to try and make a passing shot or offensive shot.

I believe they have taken the tradition of Wimbledon away as they have tried to make it to much like the other majors. Wimbledon was different and that is what made it great.

Other players to watch:

Mario Ancic is the last player to beat Federer at Wimbledon and is healthy and charging back up the rankings after been out with injuries.

Novak Djokovic: Great serve, great ground strokes but still needs to work on his volleys to be effective at Wimbledon.

Kevin Anderson: Huge serve, great all round game for a 6′7 South African.

Nadal’s first advantage is that he is a lefty which helps greatly as it matches his strength – his forehand – up against most players’ weakness – their backhand. Even if his opponent has a great backhand on the clay they are hitting off balance and above there shoulders too often to be as aggressive as they would be on a faster surface with lower bounces.

Nadal’s second advantage is the incredible amount of spin that he generates off of his forehand wing – this makes timing very difficult for his opponents. They are constantly having to take the ball on the rise to hold there position on the court. Nadal’s court coverage, foot speed andknowledge of how to construct points on the clay are a huge advantage. He has the patience and the killer instinct to wait for the right opportunity to force an error from his opponent or to hit a winner while inside the baseline.

Nadal has the ability to work/construct the point on clay to where his winning shot is most likely his easiest shot of the point as his opponent is either so far out of position or too tired to even try to get to the next shot. This ability is what has allowed him to translate his success to other surfaces. You may be asking why can’t players like Tommy Robredo, Nicolas Almagro, Jose Acasuso, Gael Monfils do the same as they are born and breed clay courters with great knowledge of how to play and construct points. The reason is that most clay courters are either incredible movers who chase everything down and wear their opponents down or they are great at constructing points on the clay – which wins them easy points.

Nadal has the ability to not only do the above but he is able to move into the court and muscle the ball that he has taking on the rise and then move in behind it to finish the point off with a volley. He is comfortable doing this on surfaces other than clay where your staple clay courters try to play clay court tennis on hard and grass courts.

I would like to see Nadal take a nice long break after Wimbledon to heal his body and knees which will make him fit and strong for the hard court season as I believe he would be a great player on the hard courts if he was able to play select events and stay healthy. If Nadal was able to have a great end of year and not fade away like he has done in the last two years then watch out. He would be a serious contender at the Australian Open if he didn’t have to take December to heal but instead to train.

VIVA RAFA!

Federer’s recent hiring of Jose Higueras as his coach is a huge step in the right direction if Federer is going to win his first French Open. Higueras is recognized as one of, if not the most knowledgeable coaches out there. This is according his former students Jim Courier, Michael Chang, Todd Martin, Pete Sampras and most recently Robby Ginepri.

Federer showed some real fire and moments of excellence in the Monte Carlo final. He artfully demonstrated a new tactic that he has gotten from Higueras – he was not only trying to move Nadal side to side on or far behind the baseline but he was moving him forward and back and winning most points when doing so. Federer was also taking his opportunities when he was able to move forward, which is going to be essential to taking the rhythm away from Nadal. I believe that Federer is only going to get better with this strategy. Yes, he lost the Monte Carlo final but he lost the final there 6-4, 6-4 in 2007 and this year, he lost it 7-5, 7-5 and he blow a couple of very good leads, including 4-0 in the second set. I believe that Federer is a little better off this year and he has a coach that is a very good communicator with a definite plan.

Federer is the most versatile player ever to play the game. He has everything needed to beat possibly the greatest clay court player. Federer is the world No. 1, however, I do think he is going to need all the help he can get when it comes to Nadal and playing him on the dirt – he might need Higueras to play with him against Nadal. The one thing that Federer does have going for him is that Nadal is not doing anything different on the clay in terms of his game and movement. Is this an advantage or not?

Nadal has been playing a lot more doubles and recently won the doubles title in Monte Carlo. Why is he doing this? To prepare for Wimbledon!!! Let the games begin…

South Africa tennis has been on the downward spiral since the early 1990’s with Wayne Ferreira being our last great tennis player. Yes Wesley Moodie has won a Wimbledon doubles title but do people really know him?

Where is all the talent? South Africa is a huge sporting nation with one of the top cricketing teams in the world, the world champion rugby team and world class swimmers. South Africa boasts great weather, excellent facilities and phenomenal and passionate coaches, so why are we not producing world class tennis players? The answer is complicated but it boils down to mismanagement and money. The national association is grossly under-funded and where there was once an entire organization committed to tennis in South Africa, the organization is now manned by a one-man show in the name of Ian Smith. He has single handedly kept the association alive by bringing new life into tennis in South Africa bringing back the South African Open and enticing some smaller ITF events. This is one great step in the right direction. Lets’ hope it is the first of many. I remember watching Goran Ivanisevic at the South African Open when I was a junior player and it was incredible.

So where are our talented juniors going? College. Ninety-nine percent of all top SA juniors are finding their way into US colleges where they are moving through the colleges ranks and only a very few are then venturing out onto the tour. The top juniors in SA have no other opportunity even if they are good enough to turn pro, there is no support in the way of funding, training or coaching to help them make the transition from the junior ranks to the pro level.

College has been good to a lot of SA players as it has been giving them a great education and – for some – a spring board into the pros. But we are losing too many as these players have nowhere to turn after the great support they receive in college.

There is a light at the end of the very long road back and his name is Kevin Anderson, a former University of Illinois student who was brought to the US and coached by Craig Tiley, who was then the South African Davis Cup coach and has now moved on to be the Head of Tennis Australia. (That is another great loss to SA tennis but is another story.)

Mr. Anderson has risen to No. 110 in the world in less than a year and has a huge game that has already got him to his first ATP final in Las Vegas and beating world No. 3 Novak Djokovic.

South African tennis needs a hero. Is Mr. Anderson that hero? Let’s hope so for the future of South African tennis and to help reinstate the great tradition of great tennis players hailing from a great land – South Africa.