Roland Garros Fast Forward: Tsonga, Federer, Ferrer, Serena, Ivanovic-Radwanska and More on Sunday
Now that the second week has arrived, you can find previews of every match on this site. This article covers all eight on Sunday.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Viktor Troicki: While their head-to-head stands more evenly balanced than you might think, Tsonga has won both of their clay meetings convincingly. Troicki has sandwiched a tortuous five-set win over a clay specialist between two straight-sets victories, the latter an upset of Marin Cilic. For a man with a losing record this season headed into the tournament, an appearance in the second week marks an excellent step forward. The bad news for Troicki is that Tsonga has not lost a set through three matches, showing uncommon discipline and purpose. With the French crowd behind him on the biggest tennis stadium in his nation, he should make short work of a man who often gets rattled in hostile or tense environments.
Gilles Simon vs. Roger Federer: When they first started to collide in the second half of 2008, Simon seemed to have Federer’s number. He rallied from losing the first set to grind past him twice that year on the hard courts of the Rogers Cup and the year-end championships. Surely chagrined that his stylistic flights of fancy could not trump a mechanical counterpuncher, Federer labored to finish him off at the 2011 Australian Open after squandering a two-set lead. Rome this month marked the first time that he finally seemed to solve his “Simon problem.” Displaying his superior clay skills, Federer yielded just three games to a Frenchman who lost his first two sets at his home major and needed to come from behind in the third round as well. Simon lost 23 games in his last match. Federer has lost 23 games in the tournament. Not even the crowd, which adores Federer, will give him a meaningful edge.
Kevin Anderson vs. David Ferrer: The tallest man in the draw faces the shortest man in the draw. On clay, though, David Ferrer looms much larger than does Kevin Anderson despite the South African’s appearance in the Casablanca final this spring. Ferrer has dominated all of his first three opponents without dropping a set, pouncing on a weak draw after Madrid and Rome assigned him quarterfinals against Nadal. The Spanish veteran has made a living out of defanging huge servers like Anderson, using his deft reflexes and compact swings to blunt their single overwhelming weapon before outmaneuvering them along the baseline. Anderson bounced Ferrer from the second round of Indian Wells in March, but that victory may have owed something to Ferrer’s busy South American clay schedule just before and the deflating loss to Nadal that ended it.
Tommy Robredo vs. Nicolas Almagro: This all-Spanish battle should feature plenty of traditional clay tennis with extended rallies from behind the baseline. A former member of the top ten, Robredo launched an impressive comeback from injury this spring by winning the Casablanca title and upsetting Tomas Berdych in Barcelona. He has emerged from one of the draw’s most star-studded nuggets, which included not only Berdych but Gael Monfils and Ernests Gulbis. Saving match points against Monfils in the last round, Robredo has rallied from losing the first two sets in each of his last two matches. By contrast, Almagro has grown famous for choking away huge leads. But he has won all five of his meetings with Robredo, all on clay, while losing one total set. Look for him to control the rallies as Robredo slips into retrieving mode.
Svetlana Kuznetsova vs. Angelique Kerber: Two of their three previous meetings have gone deep into a final set and ended with almost identical scores, the most recent in Madrid this spring. Kerber’s burst from anonymity into the top 10 occurred near the same time that Kuznetsova plummeted from trendy dark horse to forgotten woman. True to those trends, the German lefty has won both of their matches this year. Kuznetsova should hold a clear surface edge, however, and she showed by reaching the Australian Open quarterfinals that she still can bring her best tennis to the biggest tournaments. An upset of Agnieszka Radwanska at Roland Garros last year suggests that Kerber has plenty to fear, although she will bring momentum from gritting through a hard-fought contest with dirt devil Varvara Lepchenko. This match may hinge on whose forehand does the dictating.
Serena Williams vs. Roberta Vinci: Headlines would ripple through the tennis world if somebody merely stands up to Serena, much less defeats her. A canny veteran with plenty of clay skills, Vinci will resist more tenaciously than most of her previous victims. Serena will deny her the time to construct her artful combinations, though, and handled her doubles partner Sara Errani with ease. This match could develop some intrigue if the world No. 1 struggles with her timing on her return, which can happen on clay. But otherwise Serena should break serve too consistently and land too many punishing punches with her own serve to feel any serious pressure.
Carla Suarez Navarro vs. Sara Errani: The answer to Robredo vs. Almagro in the men’s draw features a contest between two clay specialists of the sort rarely witnessed in the WTA these days. Errani routed Suarez Navarro in the Acapulco final, which makes sense. In no area of her game is the tiny Spaniard better than the small Italian, who even aced her in Acapulco. On the other hand, Suarez Navarro scored a stunning upset over Errani in the first round of the last major, signaling an appropriate start to the best year of her career. The two women combined for just a handful of service holds in that match, a pattern that could resurface. Having conceded only nine games through three matches, barely more than Serena, Errani has looked as dominant as a woman without weapons other than drop shots ever will.
Agnieszka Radwanska vs. Ana Ivanovic: To state the obvious, the most important shots of a point are the first and the last. (If you’re Serena Williams, it’s often the same thing.) In the language of the WTA, that means penetrating first serves, aggressive returns, and the ability to finish points with clean winners. Ivanovic has struggled in both of those categories during her current six-match losing streak to Radwanska over the last three years. Earlier in her career, she controlled her matches with the Pole by excelling in both of them, but the tide turned in 2009 when the Serb let a 4-0 lead slip away in a third set. The pace of her serve and forehand has dwindled since she won Roland Garros five years ago, although Ivanovic has grown more comfortable in the forecourt with time. Beyond tactics and technique, though, her main challenge lies in believing that she can defeat a top-five woman at a major. The last time that Ivanovic did? Two days before she lifted the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen.